Why Real Estate Still Wins — Even in a Shaky Economy
We’re living through one of the most confusing economies in recent memory. Rates are high and the headlines scream about tariffs and geopolitical tensions. People continue to whisper about a looming recession, the stock market has bounced up and down, treasuries are up and down. And yet... the data tells a more encouraging story—especially for real estate investors.
At Endurus Capital, we’re actively buying and confident in the road ahead. Here’s why.
1. The Economy Is Stronger Than You Think
Despite the noise, several key indicators are showing real strength:
Inflation is down. After peaking at 9.1% in 2022, inflation has steadily declined and now hovers around 2.5%. The Fed’s rate hikes are having the intended effect, and we’re finally seeing pricing pressures ease. Even as tariffs have hit the market, inflation continues to drop.
Jobs are growing. The U.S. economy continues to add jobs month after month, with unemployment holding at 4.2%, historically low.
Consumer spending remains robust, and GDP growth, while slower than 2021–22, is still positive.
We’re not in a booming economy, but we’re far from a collapse. This matters because real estate, especially multifamily, relies on a healthy employment base and steady consumer demand.
2. Multifamily Fundamentals Are Rebounding
While interest rates have hurt values, property-level performance is improving:
Occupancy rates are stabilizing and trending up in many markets. Renters are staying put longer, and demand continues to outpace new supply in most areas. This is despite record deliveries.
Rents are growing again in numerous metros after a brief pause. In fact, many of the Northeast and Midwest markets are seeing annual rent growth in the 2–4% range. The sunbelt and mountain markets are still declining a bit, but that pace has slowed and in many markets it has turned positive.
Expenses are flattening. Insurance premiums and labor costs have moderated, while utilities and property taxes are more predictable than in 2022–23.
The fundamentals look healthy, especially when paired with today’s pricing.
3. High interest rates and expanded cap rates = Opportunity
This is perhaps the most important point for investors: we’re buying at a discount.
Multifamily prices are down 20–25% from peak levels. That’s not because the properties are performing worse, but because interest rates and cap rates have reset the market. Sellers who overpaid or over-levered in 2021–22 are now being forced to sell.
That creates a window for groups like ours, who have dry powder and the ability to execute in a challenging environment.
We're seeing quality assets in solid growth markets trading at prices we haven't seen in years, with real potential for upside when the interest rate environment normalizes.
4. Real Estate Is a Long-Term Game
Real estate doesn’t require perfect timing. It rewards smart buying, steady operations, and long-term ownership.
If you’re waiting for rates to drop or for the “perfect time” to invest, chances are you’ll look back in 3–5 years wishing you had acted now.
In 2008–2013, many investors stayed on the sidelines out of fear. The ones who bought then? They crushed it. Today’s uncertainty presents similar (albeit less distressed) conditions.
We’re not trying to time the bottom—we’re buying cash-flowing properties, in solid locations, with solid fixed-rate debt, that has a clear path to long-term value creation.
Our Strategy at Endurus Capital
At Endurus, we’re leaning into:
Well-located Class A and B multifamily in growing secondary markets
Deals with clear operational upside and long-term debt
Conservative underwriting with a focus on real cash flow and recession resilience
We believe real estate, when bought, financed, and operated right, will remain one of the most reliable wealth-building tools available, no matter what the headlines say.